2018 No. 1

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Overview
A Comparison of Statistical Survey Metheds of Traffic Accident Data Between China and the Uuited States
HE Yi, YANG Xinwei, WU Bing, ZHONG Ming, YAN Xinping
2018, 36(1): 1-9,27. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.001
Abstract(453) PDF(5)
Abstract:
Based on analysis of current situation of traffic safety in China,the research status of traffic accidents be-tween China and the U.S.are further discussed,including information collection technology,accidents collection system and traffic data sharing.The differences between the two countries,including definition and statistical standards of death accidents,reliability of data sources,management mechanism,and accident statistics systems,are described in detail. Considering the current situation of data management for traffic accidents in China,the predominant problems in collecting accident data are presented.Measures to improve the statistical systems of accident data are also proposed in China.Spe-cifically,these measures includes unification of statistical standards of accidents,guarantee of reliability of data sources, enhancement of data sharing,and establishment of a statistical and management systems supported by the government, citizens,and scientific research institutes.The results are beneficial for construction of statistical systems of traffic accidents.
Developments and Prospects of Diving and Salvage:A Review of 4thInternational Symposium on Underwater Operations and Off-shore Industry
CHEN Deshan, HUANG Ming, YAN Xinping
2018, 36(1): 10-20. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.002
Abstract(373) PDF(0)
Abstract:
With the rapid development of marine economy and increasing exploitation activities of marine resources, the role of the diving and salvage is prominent for the national emergency security system.In this context,the 4th Inter-national Symposium on Underwater Operations and Off-shore Industry was thus held by China Diving and Salvage Con-tractors Association(CDSA).The cutting edge research topics of the reports are summarized and discussed,which in-clude whole wreck salvage engineering,underwater operation equipment,intelligent ocean strategy,disaster relief and en-vironmental protection,as well as marine laws and regulations.With a brief review on developments and present status of the salvage system in China,perspective issues on key technologies and equipment developments,such as large-scale sal-vage ship,underwater high precision perception,deep diving,underwater robots,simulation rehearsal system,aided de-cision-making system,and underwater operation instruments are prospected.
Transportation Safety
Memory Growth Models of Drivers under Repeated Driving Environment
LI Xuewei, LI Zhenlong, ZHAO Xiaohua
2018, 36(1): 21-27. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.003
Abstract(367) PDF(1)
Abstract:
Memory affects driving behaviors of drivers such as visual search and route planning,and then influences efficiency and safety of road traffic.In order to describe characteristics of drivers′memory variation under repeated driv-ing situations,a driving simulation experiment is designed.Cumulative stimulus of repeated driving in a same scene is studied.A memory scale is adopted to measure memory degrees,and dynamic relationship between memory growth of drivers and the number of repeated driving is analyzed.Models of memory growth of drivers under cumulative stimulus are developed by using Mitscherlich,Modified Weibull,and Richards function,respectively.In addition,fitting effects of these models are compared by overall evaluation indices of adjusted determination coefficient,sum of the squared errors, and root mean square error.The results show that these three models can effectively describe the characteristics of driv-ers′memory growth.In conclusion,the model using Richards function has the best precision,of which the average adjus-ted R-square is 0.988 4,which reveals the essence of memory assimilation and dissimilation.It fits for being applied to study memory growth of drivers under repeated driving situations.
Evaluation of Navigation Risk for Inland-river Passenger Ships at Night-time Through Improved Uncertainty Measurement Model
ZHAO Hongdi, LIU Jingxian, LIU Yi, ZHAO Hongfeng, XU Zhouhua
2018, 36(1): 28-34. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.004
Abstract(333) PDF(0)
Abstract:
In order to guarantee navigation safety,and to identify safety factors of passenger ships in inland rivers at nighttime,the factors that affect navigation safety are classified into 4 categories,which are human and ship,natural en-vironment,port,and management.An index system for risk evaluation of navigation for passenger ships at nighttime is established.Combining Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight theory,influences of subjective and objec-tive factors can be alleviated in weight distribution of each evaluation index.The unascertained theory is used to deal with randomness and uncertainty of evaluation indices in the model.Taking the Haihe River in Tianjin as a case study,an un-ascertained model is used to evaluate navigation risk of passenger ships at nighttime.The results show that weight ratios of 5 factors are larger than others,including crews,ship seaworthiness,intensity of background light,safety manage-ment of ships,and shipping companies.The risk level of navigation at nighttime in Haihe River is"normal"and its confi-dence is larger than 70%.
Active Emergency Response of Patrol Car on Freeways based on an Accident Forecast Model
WANG Lu, ZHU Ning
2018, 36(1): 35-40,56. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.005
Abstract(400) PDF(2)
Abstract:
Patrol cars play an important role in emergency response of traffic safety on freeways.Existing studies are based on prior history,accident data,or structure of road network,the essence of which is static and inflexible.Based on accident data,traffic flow,occupancy,and speed,a real-time forecast model for accidents is developed using Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)method.Entity,states,and attributes of the patrol system are analyzed,and a discrete event simulation model for emergency response of patrol cares is developed.Computer simulation technology is applied to study the influences of accuracy and error rate of forecast on emergency response time.Compared with the time in normal state,the simulation results show that the average response time decreases from 23.5 min to 17.2 min on weekdays.
A Modeling Method of Attack Graphs for High-speed Railway Signal Systems based on Security Domain
FU Chunchuan
2018, 36(1): 41-48. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.006
Abstract(356) PDF(0)
Abstract:
With development of network informationization of high-speed railway signal systems,there are more se-rious security threats and risks.To assess network security risk of the system,this paper proposed a modeling method of attack graph for high-speed railway signal systems based on security domain.Host security domain and network security domain are applied to divide the network in consideration of its hierarchical structure.Distribute generation of attack graphs are developed both in and between the security domains.Meanwhile,attack modes and the minimum constraint threshold of attack benefits are used to reduce complexity of generating attack graphs according to security level require-ments of each sub-network in the system.A simulated attack behavior from a CTC station permeates into the network is applied to verify effectiveness of this method.The results show that there are 143 state nodes,142 directed edges and 20 attack paths generated in an unconstrained attack graph.A state attack graph based on a revenue constraint threshold of the minimum attack generates 51 state nodes,50 directed edges and 8 attack paths.Simulation results show that the pro-posed method can improve the efficiency of generating an attack graph,and simplify its scale to obtain possible attack paths.
Transportation Information Engineering and Control
A Study of Regularity of Navigation Patterns of Cargo Ships at the Waterways near Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge based on Ship Maneuvering Behavior
TAO Yang, MAO Zhe, SHENG Ping, WU Bing
2018, 36(1): 49-56. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.007
Abstract(352) PDF(16)
Abstract:
In order to enhance navigation safety,prevent and reduce maritime accidents in the bridge waterway, where is a frequently-occurring accidents area,AIS(Automatic Identification System)data are collected and analyzed from the perspective of ship behavior.Two typical indexes(i.e.course and speed)in upstream/downstream and different river seasons are analyzed to discover their impact on ship behavior.After comparing the results of normal and lognormal distributions fitting in different patterns using AIS data,the latter distribution is discovered to fit better than the former one.Moreover,the influences on ship behavior are quantified by using interval numbers of ship speed and course.The re-sults show that ship speed is influenced a lot by the dry season with a relatively high speed(i.e.[7,9]kn).Moreover, ship course is greatly influenced by the flooding season,specifically,the heading has an increasing trend when ships navi-gate from downstream to upstream,while the trend is decreasing from upstream to downstream.
Estimation of Queuing Length at Signalized Intersections Using Low-frequency Point Detector Data
LI Aijie, TANG Keshuang, DONG Keran
2018, 36(1): 57-64,95. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.008
Abstract(357) PDF(0)
Abstract:
Due to the limitation of traffic data collected at signalized intersections in most small and medium sized cities in China,estimation on queuing length at signalized intersections is with low accuracy.In order to solve this prob-lem,a model of estimating queue length based on data from low frequency,fixed-point,and single detectors at signalized intersections is proposed.A long queuing event(the end of a queue exceeds the position of the detector)is identified based on the relationship between occupancy,flow,and speed.Data of detectors is divided into cycles according to and synchro-nized with signal timing.The maximum length of queuing is calculated based on shock wave theory.A simulation test and a demonstration study are carried out at the south entrance lanes of Shandong road and Jiangxi road in Qingdao.The re-sult shows that identification accuracy of a long queue is above 90%.The average estimated accuracies of queuing length under different saturation(low,medium,and high)are all more than 80%,among which,the average MAE is lower than 20 m per cycle under medium and low saturation,and lower than 45 m per cycle under high saturation.
An Optimization of a Signal Control Scheme for Close Stagger Intersections based on Evaluations of Efficiency and Safety
LUO Huimin, ZHENG Liang
2018, 36(1): 65-73. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.009
Abstract(316) PDF(1)
Abstract:
In urban road systems,vehicles from different directions interfere greatly with each other in weaving sec-tions between two close stagger intersections.Especially,drivers′continuous lane change operations within limited wea-ving length have negatively influences on traffic efficiency and safety.Therefore,a coordinated signal control scheme for safety is developed based on comprehensive consideration of efficiency and safety.A signal light for right-turning vehicles is set up in a minor road of an upstream intersection to separate the conflicts from space-time,and systematically optimi-zing phrases and timing for close stagger intersections,in order to reduce vehicle delays and improve safety level.Then, intersections of Pushang Road-Jinzhou South Road-Jingang Road in Fuzhou are taken as a case study.Using Vissim and SSAM,the proposed scheme is compared with the current scheme,and another isolated optimization scheme in the re-spect of efficiency and safety.The results show that compared with current scheme,the efficiency and safety level of the isolated optimization scheme and the proposed scheme improved by 36.17% and 57.17%,respectively,w hich verifies the superiority of the proposed scheme.In addition,by adjusting distance between two intersections in Vissim,a similar com-parison has been developed,and the results show that the shorter of the distance of close stagger intersections is,the big-ger of the superiority of the proposed scheme.
A Model for Crossing Behaviors of Pedestrians at Intersections During Flashing Green Signals
ZHOU Yang, ZHOU Zhuping, XU Yongneng, CAI Yifei
2018, 36(1): 74-80. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.010
Abstract(262) PDF(0)
Abstract:
Flashing green signal for pedestrians at signalized intersections is used to warn remaining pedestrians at crosswalks that their right of way is going to end and they should try to finish crossing before the vehicles at the crossing street are released.A model is proposed to study the behaviors of pedestrians during the flashing green phase.This paper analyzes the effects of the following factors on the crossing behavior of pedestrians,including flashing green signal,sur-rounding pedestrians,boundaries of crosswalks,and right-turning vehicles.Afterwards,a model for crossing behavior is developed based on the social force theory.Coefficients for this model are calibrated by using actual data including specifi-cations of crosswalks and speeds of pedestrians and crossing vehicles.Using the proposed model,the crossing behaviors of pedestrians are simulated.The performance of this model at the macroscopic level is validated by layering and collision avoidance behaviors with conflicting pedestrians and vehicles.By fitting the simulated changing rate of the crossing speed with the observed,the optimization indexes RNLof the first or second half of the crosswalks are 83% and 95% respective-ly,which validate the performance of the model at the microscopic level.
A Study of User Value of Traffic Information Distributed Through Social Network based on Regret Theory
JI Xiaofeng, LIAN Chenxi
2018, 36(1): 81-87. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.011
Abstract(252) PDF(0)
Abstract:
Traffic information in social network exerts vital influences on decision-making of travelers.In order to study user value of traffic information in the social network,generation and propagation of traffic information distributed through social network are analyzed,and its characteristics are extracted from a perspective of information behavior.A model of user value is developed based on regret theory while utilities of travelers′route choices and updating methods of traffic information are given.Based on those methods,characteristics of user value of traffic information shared in the so-cial network are analyzed from positive and negative effects,respectively.Different scenes of information transmission are taken as case studies to verify the user value of traffic information in the social networks.Results show that traffic infor-mation in the social network contributes to decision-making of travelers,the regret value of travel decisions reduced by 20% in effective scenes.However,the user value reduces with continuous propagation of information in the social net-work.In addition,over-propagated traffic information has negative effects on decision-making.
A Simulation of the Attenuation of Maritime Radar Wave Induced by Offshore Floating Wind Farms in Deep Sea Areas
WANG Qian, YU Xiaofeng, XIE Lei, JIANG Jianping, LI Zilin, SHI Qilin
2018, 36(1): 88-95. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.012
Abstract(285) PDF(0)
Abstract:
Large marine structures such as offshore floating wind farms in deep sea areas have effects on navigation safety of ships.Among which sheltering effects induced by the wind farms have drawn attention of maritime administra-tion.Considering maritime environment and distribution of wind turbines,characteristics of maritime radar wave attenua-tion in offshore wind farms have been studied through theoretical analysis and numerical modeling.A comparison between model simulations and field measurements at Shanghai Donghai wind farm verified validity of this method.Site selection of the offshore wind farm is further discussed and a case study of Shanghai is presented.Comparing the influences of off-shore wind farms on ship navigation safety,an optimal layout plan is confirmed and adopted by the major demonstration project of offshore wind power in Shanghai.
Transportation Planning and Management
Identification of Travel Behavior of Urban Rail Transit System Using Distributed Trip Information
LI Yan, ZHANG Kaili, NAN Sirui, CHEN Kuanmin
2018, 36(1): 96-102. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.013
Abstract(265) PDF(0)
Abstract:
A detection system and related algorithms of distributed trip behaviors are developed to identify charac-teristics of trips in urban rail transit systems using Wi-Fi information collected from passengers.The unique Media Access Control(MAC)addresses of mobile devices carried by passengers can be detected by detection devices installed in stations and be uploaded to a data center.The characteristics of route choices and travel time can be identified by comparing time stamps and related station IDs of selected mobile devices in the data center.T ransfer time can also be obtained by consid-ering operation time of the urban rail transit system,w hich can be utilized as a constraint of route identification.A case study of the rail transit system in Xi′an with actual information from the AFC data indicates that the proposed system can identify route choices and travel time for all kinds of networks with a sampling rate of 32.86% and an error rate of 3.8%. Analyzing the results of this system can be utilized for precise management,such as ticket clearing and station design.
A Study of Multimodal Traffic Assignment based on a Multi-level Network
YU Xiaohua, YAN Kefei, MOU Zhenhua, ZHANG Hui
2018, 36(1): 103-110,128. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.014
Abstract(328) PDF(7)
Abstract:
To solve problems of multimodal traffic assignment on a composite traffic network,the network is trans-formed into a multi-level structure,and a model of traffic assignment together with its constraints and solving algorithms are proposed.Firstly,the multimodal composite network is explained by a multi-level network structure.A three-level network is taken as a case study,the first level is for mode choices in consideration of combined travels;the second level is a state-augmented multi-modal network based on travel logic;the third level is a road network for cars.Secondly,path impedance of a multi-level network is analyzed including link impedance and transfer impedance.An N-L model for traffic assignment on this network is developed.According to the actual structure of the composite network,the efficiency of solving this model is improved through adding constraints of effective paths,effective transfers,and typical combined travels.Thirdly,the Method of Successive Averages(MSA)is used to solve the problems of the three-level network.Fi-nally,a numerical example is proposed based on traffic assignment on a composite network with three types of traveling modes.The model iterates seven times to meet the convergence conditions.The results show that in the case study,rail transfer has certain competitiveness,accounting for 40% of the total travels.The reliability of results is verified through SP investigation.This method takes path choice,transfer node choice,and composite travel choice into consideration and therefore overcomes drawbacks of the traditional four-stage method in multimodal traffic assignment.
Emission Reduction of CO2 Caused by BEV in Urban Passenger Transport:A Case Study of Harbin
XU Huizhi, PEI Yulong, WANG Lianzhen, ZAHANG Wenhui
2018, 36(1): 111-118. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.015
Abstract(377) PDF(3)
Abstract:
Operation of new energy vehicles in urban passenger transport is one of effective ways to solve environmental pol-lution.From the view of CO2 emissions,the whole process of energy production is comprehensively considered to calculate total energy consumption and total CO2 emissions of urban passenger traffic in Harbin.Limitation of calculation CO2 emissions based on Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines(For Trial Implementation)is analyzed.A new computational method is de-veloped from the view of traffic users.According to traffic data including vehicle distance,fuel consumption,power consumption, and gas consumption,the total energy consumption(i.e.activity level) of urban passenger traffic is calculated,then multiplied by corresponding emission factor to calculate the amount of CO2 emissions.An extreme case that BEV vehicles completely replace gasoline or diesel fuel vehicles is simulated,the emission reduction of CO2 in urban passenger traffic which caused by BEV vehi-cles can be calculated.Influencing factors of unit energy consumption,unit power consumption,and power factors of CO2 emis-sions are analyzed.The results show that the total CO2 emissions from urban passenger transport is 29.01 million t in 2015.A-mong them,CO2 emissions of gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles is to 15.39 million t.Emission reduction of CO2 achieves to 413 000 t per year when BEV can replace all gasoline and diesel vehicles.
Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Health Risks of Vehicle Pollution in High-populated Urban Areas
LIU Xiaoyu, SHENG Ping, MA Xiaofeng, ZHONG Ming
2018, 36(1): 119-128. doi: 10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.016
Abstract(282) PDF(0)
Abstract:
In order to forecast pollution level of SO2,NO2,and CO in high-populated areas,as well as their im-pacts on health,micro-monitor Cairpols are used to measure their concentration level at four monitoring points:a campus entrance,a bus stop,an intersection,and a restaurant,which are close to the Wuhan University of Technology.These data were collected within two weeks at morning peak,off peak,and evening peak hours.The spatial and temporal distri-butions of concentration of SO2,NO2,and CO are analyzed with statistical methods.A model is developed to estimate the health risks of SO2,NO2,and CO on nearby population.The results show that the concentration of CO at four monito-ring points is from 0.27 mg/m3 to 3.54 mg/m3;NO2 is from 3.44 μg/m3 to 210 μg/m3;and SO2 is from 19.63 μg/m3 to 290 μg/m3.The highest concentration of NO2is found at the bus stop,intersection,and restaurant at evening peak hours in weekends,which are all above the national limit and present health risk to nearby people.

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