A Review of Road Safety Evaluation Techniques Based on Traffic Conflict Theories
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摘要: 基于交通冲突理论的道路安全评价技术, 是以交通冲突因素为指标的道路交通安全状态评价技术。在梳理交通冲突影响因素与安全评价基本概念的基础上, 列举了常见的道路安全评价技术应用场景; 从交叉口、高速公路、特定场景3个方面分析了交通冲突的影响因素; 从指标选取、方法选择、模型构建3个方面对道路安全评价技术进行了归纳总结。通过对现有文献的分析可以发现: 在应用场景构建时, 相比于考虑单一冲突因素, 综合考虑交通冲突影响因素, 将使得构建的交通冲突场景更接近实际情况; 在交通安全评价时, 科学选择复合指标、合理使用模糊综合评价和层次分析法构建安全评价方法, 将使构建的安全评价方法更加科学严谨。基于现有研究中存在的问题, 指出了道路安全评价技术未来的研究方向, 主要包括充分利用视频技术和互联网技术, 搭建实时、高效的安全评价模型; 验证现有道路安全评价方法在混合交通流下是否适用; 建立健全混合交通流环境下的道路交通安全评价技术标准和评价体系。Abstract: Road safety evaluation technologies based on traffic conflict theories are considering traffic conflict factors in the road safety evaluation. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of traffic conflict(TC) and the basic concepts of safety evaluation, the common application scenarios of road safety evaluation technology are listed. The influencing factors of traffic conflict are analyzed from three aspects: intersection, expressway, and specific scene. Besides, the road safety evaluation technology is summarized from the following three aspects: index selection, method selection, and model construction.Analysis of existing literature shows that in the construction of application scenarios, compared with the consideration of single conflict factor, comprehensive consideration of influencing factors of TC will make the constructed TC scenarios closer to the actual situation; in traffic safety evaluation, scientific selection of composite indexes, rational use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy method to construct safety evaluation methods will make the constructed safety evaluation methods more scientific and rigorous. Based on the issues identified from the existing studies, the future research direction of road safety evaluation technology is concluded, including making full use of video technology and internet technology to develop real-time and efficient safety evaluation models; verifying the applicability of existing road safety evaluation methods under mixed traffic flow; establishing and improving the evaluation technical standards and evaluation system of road traffic safety under mixed traffic flow environment.
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表 2 车辆与交通指标因素
Table 2. Vehicle and traffic index factors
作者 年份 因素指标 Gregoriades[2] 2010 车辆平均速度、平均距离 马[23] 2010 机动车车型、安全性能 沈[25] 2011 动力性能、技术状况 邱[36] 2013 汽车保有量 张[1] 2013 车辆故障、超限、超载 张[17] 2017 车辆故障率、大型车比例 Du[26] 2018 不良制动、转向故障、轮胎穿孔、制动故障、照明故障和其他机械故障 郭[27] 2018 直左交通量 Wang [28] 2019 累计车辆数、时间平均速度和车道占用率 Cai[29] 2020 车辆识别号、时间、经度、纬度、速度、车辆标识、时间、驾驶行为类型 Wang[30] 2020 交通量、车队比例 Faber[16] 2020 渗透率、长度、车队内车头时距、车队速度 郭[8] 2022 周期左转绿灯时长 
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表 3 道路因素指标
Table 3. Road factor indexes
作者 年份 因素指标 Gregoriades[2] 2010 交通密度、路段车道变化数、道路坡度，水平曲率，车道宽度 马[23] 2010 农村公路配套设施、线形设计 沈[24] 2011 几何线形、交叉口类型、数量，交通安全设施、长大下坡、桥隧数量 张[1] 2013 平面线形、纵断面线形、平纵组合线性、路面平整度、路面抗滑性 邱[36] 2013 道路等级、分流合流、路口情况 王[21] 2014 信控交叉口密度、接入口密度、路段线形、中央分隔带开口密度、区位特点 王[22] 2014 纵坡坡度、弯道半径 李[15] 2015 平面线性、纵断面曲线 张[17] 2017 曲线半径、道路坡度、坡道长度、竖曲线、停车视距、会车视距、超车视距、紧急避险车道、安全防护栏、隔离栅、防眩设施、交通标志标线、特殊路段 郭[31-32] 2017
2018渠化岛、直行方向中央分隔带、右转信号相位、右转让行标志 Du[26] 2018 道路线形条件、路面摩擦系数 Wang[33] 2019 道路密度、主次干道的总长度、交叉口间距 李[34] 2019 摩擦系数、平整度、水膜厚度、路面排水性 Pu[35] 2020 道路类型、位置、几何设计、出入控制和、速度执行水平 郭[8] 2022 平均左转弯半径、左转待转区长度
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表 5 其他影响因素指标
Table 5. Other influencing factors and indicators
作者 年份 因素指标 林[37] 2010 交通冲突 沈[25] 2011 组织机构、协调机制、人员物资保障技术措施 Hassan[39] 2012 死亡人数、事故和违规分析、司机培训及执照 邱[36] 2013 事故形态、交通信号方式 Yu[40] 2013 碰撞时间 郑[5] 2014 车道变换冲突 郭[6] 2014 经济水平、机动车保有量、人口数量 张[20] 2018 事故易发位置、事故实际发生的次数、事故严重度、事故交通影响程度 Lee[3] 2018 车辆类型碰撞比例 Essa[11] 2019 冲击波速度和面积、车队比率、修正碰撞时间、避免碰撞减速率 Wang[28] 2019 碰撞轨迹、碰撞时间、位置、类型和严重程度 Pu[35] 2020 碰撞严重程度、碰撞类型和碰撞原因、速度、占用率 Orsini[4] 2020 碰撞时间、碰撞概率、碰撞次数
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