Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability

YIN Yanna; WEN Huiying

doi:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

Volume 40 Issue 3

Jun. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Transport Information and Safety > 2022 > 40(3): 1-9

YIN Yanna, WEN Huiying. Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(3): 1-9. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

Citation:

YIN Yanna, WEN Huiying. Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(3): 1-9. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

Citation:

PDF( 1571 KB)

Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

YIN Yanna,
WEN Huiying^,

School of civil engineering and transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China

Received Date: 2022-01-01
Available Online: 2022-07-25

Abstract

Abstract

A crash prediction model is developed, in order to explore the relationship between multi-mode failure probability and heavy-duty truck crashes over long downhill road sections. A model for multi-mode failure probability prediction is developed to study the probability of different types of failures associated with heavy-duty trucks, such as skidding, rollover, insufficient sight distance, and braking failure, on the long downhill sections. The single-mode failure probability is simulated using a Monte Carlo method and the multi-mode failure probability of the system is studied by a wide bound method. Three crash prediction models including a Poisson model, a random-effect Poisson model, and a random-parameter Poisson model are developed, considering multi-mode failure probability as one of the explanatory variables together with other impact factors. The models are used to link the multi-mode failure probability with the crashes of heavy-duty trucks. The optimal crash prediction model is selected through the goodness-of-fit for accurately modeling the relationship between crashes of the trucks and their multi-mode failure probability. The method is verified by a 10-year data of heavy-duty truck crash and road design of 71 long downhill sections in the Washington State, the United States. The results show that there is little difference in the goodness of fit between the random-effect Poisson model and random-parameter Poisson model, and both of them are better than the Poisson model. It is found that radius of the horizontal curves, grades and superelevation rates are not significant in leading to the crashes, when compared with the multi-mode failure probability. Study results show that, the elasticity of multi-mode failure probability (0.239) is much greater than that of the radius of horizontal curve and superelevation (0.097 and 0.002) respectively; heavy-duty truck crashes and multi-mode failure probability are approximately linearly correlated, and the intercept of the model is found to be other than "0". The above results indicate that the multi-mode failure probability can be used for road safety analysis, but it is not equivalent to the crash probability, which may be used as a basis for improving road design.
- traffic safety,
- long downhill segments,
- multi-mode failure probability,
- random effects Poisson model,
- random parameters Poisson model,
- heavy-duty truck

FullText(HTML)

References(28)

References

[1]	张驰, 侯宇迪, 秦际涵, 等. 基于制动毂温升的连续下坡安全设计方法[J]. 华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 47 (10): 139-150. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HNLG201910016.htm ZHANG C, HOU Y D, QIN J H, et al. Safety design method of long slope downhill slope based on temperature increase of brake drum[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2019, 47(10): 139-150. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HNLG201910016.htm
[2]	REZAPOUR M, MOOMEN M, KSAIBATI K. Ordered logistic models of influencing factors on crash injury severity of single and multiple-vehicle downgrade crashes: A case study in Wyoming[J]. Journal of Safety Research, 2019(68) 107-118.
[3]	陈富坚, 邓伟建, 徐培培, 等. 弯坡组合路段可靠性设计方法研究[J]. 公路工程, 2017, 42(3): 98-105, 130. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0610.2017.03.021 CHEN F J, DENG W J, XU P P, et al. Reliability design method for combination of vertical and horizontal curves[J]. Highway Engineering, 2017, 42(3): 98-105, 130. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0610.2017.03.021
[4]	张航, 储泽宇, 吕能超, 等. 基于侧向稳定性的圆曲线路段设计指标研究[J]. 交通信息与安全, 2021, 39(2): 28-35. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.02.004 ZHANG H, CHU Z Y, LYU N C, et al. Design indices of circular curve section based on lateral stability[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(2): 28-35. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.02.004
[5]	中华人民共和国交通运输部. 公路工程技术标准: JTG B01—2014[S]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2015. Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China. Technical standard of highway engineering: JTG B01— 2014[S]. Beijing: China Communications Press, 2015. (in Chinese)
[6]	AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials). A policy on geometric design of highways and streets[R]. Washington, D. C. : American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 2004.
[7]	IBRABIM S E, SAYED T. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2011, 43(6): 2153-2159.
[8]	IBRAHIM S E, SAYED T, ISMAIL K. Methodology for safety optimization of highway cross-sections for horizontal curves with restricted sight distance[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2012(49): 476-485.
[9]	SARHAN M, HASSAN Y. Three-dimensional, probabilistic highway design: Sight distance application[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008(2060): 10-18.
[10]	RICHL L, SAYED T. Evaluating the safety risk of narrow medians using reliability analysis[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2006, 132(5): 366-375. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2006)132:5(366)
[11]	YOU K, SUN L, GU W. Reliability-based risk analysis of roadway horizontal curves[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2012, 138(8): 1071-1081. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000402
[12]	ESSAM, SAYEDT, HUSSEIN M. Multimode reliability-based design of horizontal curves[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2016(93): 124-134.
[13]	MANNERING F L, BHAT C R. Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions[J]. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, 2014(1): 1-22.
[14]	MOOMEN M, REZAPOUR M, RAJA M, et al. Predicting downgrade crash frequency with the random-parameters negative binomial model: Insights into the impacts of geometric variables on downgrade crashes in Wyoming[J]. IATSS Research, 2020(44): 94-102.
[15]	HOU Q, TARKO A P, MENG X. Investigating factors of crash frequency with random effects and random parameters models: New insights from Chinese freeway study[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2018(120): 1-12.
[16]	MA Z, ZHANG H, CHIEN S I, et al. Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model: A case study in China[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2017(98): 214-222.
[17]	张明. 结构可靠度分析: 方法与程序[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009. ZHANG M. Structural reliability analysis: methods and procedures[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2009. (in Chinese)
[18]	刘远才, 游润东, 杨永红. 道路勘测设计[M]. 北京: 中国电力出版社, 2010. LIU Y C, YOU R D, YANG Y H. Road survey and design[M]. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2010. (in Chinese)
[19]	游克思. 基于车辆动力学和可靠性理论的道路安全分析及优化设计研究[D]. 南京: 东南大学, 2012. YOU K S. Vehicle dynamics and reliability based highway safety analysis and design optimization[D]. Nanjing: Southeast University, 2012. (in Chinese)
[20]	DENG T, FU J, SHAO Y. Pedal operation characteristics and driving workload on slopes of mountainous road based on naturalistic driving tests[J]. Safety Science, 2019(119): 40-49.
[21]	苏波. 大货车持续制动性能与山区高速公路纵坡优化设计研究[D]. 上海: 同济大学, 2009. SU B. Research on continuous braking performance of truck and optimization design of longitudinal slope of expressway in mountainous area[D]. Shanghai: Tongji University, 2009. (in Chinese)
[22]	肖润谋, 叶燕仙, 周晓悦, 等. 发动机制动失效的坡长临界值计算[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2006, 6(4): 122-126. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.04.027 XIAO R M, YE Y X, ZHOU X R, et al. Critical slope length computation of engine brake inefficacy[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(4): 122-126. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2006.04.027
[23]	周荣贵. 公路纵坡坡度与坡长限制的研究[D]. 北京: 北京工业大学, 2004. ZHOU R G. Study on highway longitudinal gradient and grade length limit[D]. Beijing: Beijing University of Technology, 2004. (in Chinese)
[24]	王晓安, 李志中, 计斌, 等. 山区双车道公路平曲线路段运行速度预测模型研究[J]. 黑龙江交通科技, 2015, 38(7): 4-6. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-3383.2015.07.003 WANG X A, LI Z Z, JI B, et al. Study on the prediction operating speed model on the mountainous two-lane highway horizontal curve section[J]. Communications Science and Technology Heilongjiang, 2015, 38(7): 4-6. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-3383.2015.07.003
[25]	LORDD, MANNERING F. The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2010, 44(5): 291-305. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001
[26]	WASHINGTON S P, KARLAFTIS M G, MANNERING F. Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis[M]. New York: CRC Press, 2010.
[27]	胡江碧, 李晓宇, 罗绍建, 等. 基于驾驶行为需求的长大纵坡界定[J]. 北京理工大学学报, 2017, 37(6): 590-594. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJLG201706008.htm HU J B, LI X Y, LUO S J. et al. The definition of long steep downgrade based on driver behavior[J]. Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology, 2017, 37(6): 590-594. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJLG201706008.htm
[28]	郑晓. 基于货车制动性能的长大下坡行车风险分析及防控措施[D]. 西安: 长安大学, 2014. ZHENG X. Research on risk analysis of driving and prevention measures for the long-steep downgrade based on truck braking performance[D]. Xi'an: Chang'an University, 2014. (in Chinese)

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views

Proportional views

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Figures(3) / Tables(3)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article Metrics

Article views (2434) PDF downloads(135)

Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

Abstract

References

Proportional views

Catalog

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Related

Development of Crash Prediction Models Involving Heavy-duty Trucks over Long Downhill Segments Considering Multi-mode Failure Probability

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.03.001

Abstract

References

Proportional views

Catalog

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Related

Export File

Citation

Format

Content